Dylan Donnelly’s Quick Call Stakes Analysis
July 15th, 2021 Saratoga Race 8 G3 Quick Call Stakes
3yo Colts and Geldings
5 1/2 Furlongs TURF
Selections – 9 / 3 /
The first stakes race of the season at Saratoga and we’re sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. There will be a deserving favorite in the race who is trained by Wesley Ward. His name is Golden Pal. He won the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint last November, earning a strong 90 Beyer while doing so. One of my favorite things in racing are horses who were “Against the grain” in their previous races. In the BC all the horses who were trying to keep up with him early in the race finished 14th, 13th, 9th, and 8th. That’s good but I am not actually sure how good that field was, there were some decent runners but no studs. Three others have won out of there. Two winning allowance races and another winning an allowance and a stakes race at Ellis. I found some interesting stats for Wesley Ward.
– Last 5 years in graded stakes races @Saratoga: 0 for 7 with two seconds and a third.
– Last 5 years >180 days in graded stakes: 1 for 8 with another second and third. ROI $0.82
– Last 5 years >180 days @Saratoga: 1 for 15, one second and to thirds. ROI $0.30
#9 Jaxon Traveler is a good sprinter. If he can transfer his speed to the turf he can upset Golden Pal. He is bred to handle it and I am expecting he will. He’s fast early and that’s a great thing in turf sprints. He will be in the clear probably sitting right off of Golden Pal. Jaxon has already ran a 94 Beyer and has shown he can pass horses. In his win at Oaklawn the 3 horses behind all improved their Beyer points while running in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. Two back he broke on top but left the stablemate alone on a lonely lead and tried to make a four wide move but that wasn’t going to work. My trip notes for his last race were “Broke sharp, went to the rail and sat in the pocket, was on the rail waiting for a spot to open around the turn and when it did he kicked nicely, the winner drifted over on him and he got a little discouraged and backed up. Still a nice very good race”.
Here’s how I’ll bet the race.
$100 to win #9 Jaxon Traveler
$5 trifecta 9 / 3 / 2,8 = $10
$10 exacta 9 / 3 = $10
