LoneSpeed Fan Post


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It’s hard to imagine a Kentucky Derby with Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert bringing out three live horses from his arsenal and leaving without the win. Insert Omaha Beach, my undisputed Derby horse. Richard Mandella deserves upmost praise for the work he’s done with his horse with noticeable improvements on the track and on the form. Winning the Arkansas Derby basically solidified his chances of being the favorite in the first Saturday in May, but it was his performance in the Rebel that won me over. Game Winner is one hell of a horse that seemed like he was going to come out victorious that day at Oaklawn, but it was “Money” Mike Smith who piloted Omaha Beach to the wire winning by a nose in an unforgettable horse race. 

Another horse very live in the Derby is Jason Servis’ controversial Maximum Security. Could a horse that really ran in a $16,000 race at Gulf Stream Park win the first leg of the Triple Crown? The answer is simply yes.  I love his chances. 

It’s impossible to leave Improbable out of the conversation, he’s battle tested and a proven winner at Churchill Downs, who also happens to be working great. The connections are too hard to ignore especially with Irad Ortiz taking the mount. I would not be surprised if Improbable came out of this race on top.

 If there’s one horse I hate and want no part of on any of my tickets it’s Vekoma. I’m trying to ignore the 101-speed figure in the Blue Grass and quite frankly I don’t want anything out of that race. I can see Vekoma screwing me come Derby day so I will probably be forced to make a slight defensive play using him. 

Two horses that no doubt have a chance to win this race are Roadster and Tacitus. I’ll be using them both on my trifectas and superfectas for sure. Look for Tacitus to jump to the lead right away aboard Jose Ortiz. I would classify Roadster as the third best from the Baffert bunch, but he will definitely take a lot of money. 

If you’re looking for a price, take a good look at Tax. 5 for 5 ITM following three consecutive 100+ speed figure ratings. I can see him going off at a big number when the gates open with a bettors chance to it the board with a splash. 

It’s worth taking a look at Win Win Win. The third place finisher from the Tampa Derby might have something left in the tank that the public isn’t ready for.Code of Honor and War of Will are the last two long shots that I can say with confidence will have a chance at hitting the board.

My final prediction is Omaha Beach and Game Winner will duel it out yet once again and the result won’t change. I can picture the smile on Mike Smith’s face right now. 

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