Bonus card alert!!! Sunday’s weather cancellation at Kentucky Downs means we get some unexpected midweek action. And LoneSpeed has two interesting opinions in the Wednesday co-features that make up a nice little cold double, if you are so inclined.
Race 8- Dueling Grounds Oaks
With Pamina and Heavenly Love likely to attract the bulk of the wagering attention in this 1 5/16miles event for 3yo fillies, it’s reasonable to assume we may see something close to the 8-1 ML on 1-Osare for Jonathan Thomas and Jose Ortiz. Two of Osare’s three lifetime starts have been at this distance or farther, give or take a 1/16th mile. Her loss in her last start at Saratoga to Lady Montdore resulted in a DQ for obvious interference in the stretch, but she was definitely second-best. And we saw what Lady Montdore did in her next start. So while there aren’t any stakes tries on the resume for Osare, you can make the case that she brings some class with her. If she can work out the right trip from the rail, I’d rate Osare every bit as likely to take this as her more heavily-bet foes.
Race 9- Dueling Grounds Derby
As with the Oaks, I feel the Derby features two (if not three) entrants that are likely to be over-bet based on the class they show on paper. I’m talking about Bandua and Captivating Moon, both of whom ran well in the Grade 1 Secretariat. And for sure, both can win this. Reride will also get support. But I like 9-Channel Cat for Todd Pletcher. He’s pretty much split the field or better in each of his graded stakes appearances, the last two of which saw him finishing behind only Catholic Boy, Analyze It, and Hunting Horn at big odds. We won’t get those big odds today, but with the presence of others named above, the 7-2 ML may end up looking like a bargain when all is said and done. He’ll come from way out of it, but at this distance has plenty of time to hit his best stride and win.