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Craig’s Juvy Turf Analysis

Let’s all give a nice round of applause to LoneSpeed’s newest content contributor, Craig Spencer.  Soon, Craig will have his own byline here on the website.  Just as soon as I can figure out how to do it.  Here is Craig’s analysis of the Juvenile Turf.  Get busy reading….

 

Most of the best US talent at this stage of their 2 year-old year are still trying to make a name for themselves on the dirt so they can make a run at the Triple Crown.  The European shippers are definitely at an advantage in this race.  Not only have they been racing on turf against the best 2 year-olds that Europe has to offer, they are trained over turf in the mornings and are well prepared to handle the lower rate North American talent that they will typically face.

Pedigree information to consider:  Sadler’s Wells, El Prado and Danzig have both sired one winner and have been the broodmare sire to one winner.  More Than Ready, who was a strong Juvenile Fillies Turf influence sire sired one winner.

Aiden O’Brien has had at least one starter in this race in each of its 10 running’s, after going 0 for 3 in the first 3, he has won 4 of the last 7 renditions.  Based on the strength of his stable my selection will be centered on just about anything he sees fit to put on an airplane.  O’Brien brings the historically significant G1 Dewhurst third place finisher, Anthony Van Dyck who also finished second in a G1 and won a G2 at the Curragh and is by Galileo (Sadler’s Wells) and out of mare that has thrown a champion sprinter in New Zealand/Australia in Bounding, which begs the question if distance might be an issue for this colt, however he’s already proven to be effective at 7 furlongs, one more furlong probably isn’t out of the question.

As for the North American horses:

Forty Under was pretty impressive when winning the G3 Pilgrim 5 weeks out for Jeremiah Englehart and Manny Franco.
Henley’s Joy won his first two starts before being beaten a nose in the G3 Bourbon by Current.
Current was victorious in the aforementioned G3 Bourbon.  He was beaten in debut while finishing a little green down the lane while sprinting at the Spa.  Came back to win next out at Belmont while stretching out to a mile and doing it well in hand over a course labeled as Good which could be similar to the course at Churchill this week.
Uncle Benny won the Futurity at Belmont Park.  This was the first year that race was ran over the turf course and not on the dirt main track.  Uncle Benny won for the red hot Jason Servis barn as the second choice in the wagering.
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My selection for this race is the O’Brien runner Anthony Van Dyck who will be my lone A, Current will be my only B andUncle Benny, Forty Under, Much Better and Henley’s Joy as C’s in my horizontal wagers.  If speed is holding on the turf leading into the card or into this race, Much Better who is Baffert’s first turf starter in a Breeders’ Cup race since he ran Caffe Lotte in the 2000 F&M Turf, is projected on my sheets to be LONESPEED and could be a danger to carry it the distance, a speed friendly bias would force me to play some exactas with him on top.

 

Breeders’ Cup Package

1 Comment

  1. Rich on October 31, 2018 at 5:41 pm

    I love that crazy guy, Craig.

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