Dylan Donnelly’s Schuylerville Stakes Analysis

July 15th, 2021 Saratoga Race 9 G3 Schuylerville Stakes
2yo fillies
6 Furlongs DIRT

Selections – 2 / 7 / 4

Nine two-year old fillies take the stage here in what looks to be a competitive event. Surprisingly, Pletcher doesn’t have any in here but Wesley Ward, who excels with two-year olds, has the morning line favorite #7 Happy Soul (8:5). In her last two races she smoked the other 8 fillies she ran against, winning by a combined 23 1/4 lengths. In the Astoria there was only one other horse who had actually won a race so I am taking the stance that it was a pretty weak field. Granted she ran quick but she’s not that much faster than some of the other ones in here.

#2 Mainstay (7:2) broke her maiden over a sloppy track at Monmouth Park on June 4th. She didn’t jump away that quick from the gates but she collected herself and rushed up on the rail taking the lead a furlong after. She never looked like she was going to lose the race. She took the turn very smooth and drew away down the lane without being asked to run at all. Granted this race was on a sloppy track but I think she’s a runner. Trainer Robert Reid with horses who broke their maiden in their first race have a great record in their second starts. From seven starts they’re three winners, and two seconds.

#4 Velvet Sister (8:1) is a NY bred trained by Steve Asmussen. In her debut she raced against two other rivals and paid $6.80 as the longest shot in the field. She broke super sharp and improved her position. Another horse drew alongside her at the top of the stretch and flicked her away and opened up. She will definitely need to improve and run faster to compete but she will be a good price and there’s no reason to think she can’t jump up and be competitive.

Here’s how I’d bet this race: $100 Win: #2 Mainstay

$5 Trifecta: 2 with 4,7 with 4,7 = $10
$2 Trifecta: 2 with 3,4,5,7 with 3,4,5,7 = $20