Hot Friday Saratoga and Del Mar Stakes Analysis from Dylan Donnelly
July 16th, 2021 Saratoga Race 9 G3 Forbidden Apple Stakes
4yo and Upward
1 Mile TURF
Selections 4 / 3 / 10
Very salty group of older horses going 8 panels in the Friday feature at Saratoga. I can’t see Flying Scotsman winning but everyone else could. I think every horse besides Flying Scotsman has a race or two in their past performances that can put them in the winners circle. If you’re playing multi-race wagers I’d rank them as follows:
A’s: 3,4 B’s: 1,7,10 C’s: 2,8,9
Here’s a few snippets on some horses in the race:
#1 Rinaldi (9:2): IF this horse gets a slowish pace on the lead he can win no doubt. NY turf races usually don’t unfold that quick so that’s a plus.
#3 Value Proposition (5:2): Probably the horse to beat in here but he doesn’t have to win. His last race was a win over some good horses including Therapist. He should be able to save ground and come running late.
#4 Therapist (8:1): Therapist was in career form last fall to run his best numbers with a 102 in October and then a win at Aqueduct in November earning a 97. His last race was against Value Proposition but I don’t think he had the smoothest trip. He was loaded around the turn but Alvarado made it a point to stay inside and wait instead of angling wide. When he found room he actually ran slightly faster in his last furlong than Value Proposition. He will be a good price and a good bet.
$10 Logical Myth (15:1): This one’s last six races have been his fastest and he has been running against some very, very respectable older turf horses like Colonel Liam and Set Piece. At Pimlico in his last race he was against the grain. Besides Pixalate all of the other horses that were up on the pace finished up 6th, 9th and 10th. He’s a very good price and he can definitely run well today.
How I would play the race:
$100 to win #4 Therapist
$25 to win #10 Logical Myth
$10 exacta 4 over 10 = $10
$5 exacta 10 over 4 = $5
$1 trifecta 4,10 / 1,3,4,7,10 / 1,3,4,7,10 = $24
$1 trifecta 1,3,4,7,10 / 4,10 / 1,3,4,7,10 = $24
$1 trifecta 1,3,4,7,10 / 1,3,4,7,10 / 4,10 = $24
July 16th, 2021 Del Mar Race 9 Oceanside Stakes
3yo colts and geldings
1 Mile TURF
Selections 3 / 13 / 1 / 14
As always, the opening day feature is the Oceanside Stakes. There’s a wide open field of 14 runners and by my count I wouldn’t be surprised if 6 of them won. Those six would be #1 Harbored Memories, #3 Crew Dragon, #5 Petruchio, #8 Flashiest, #13 Whatmakessammyrun, and #14 Hockey Dad. I’d rank them accordingly in multi-leg bets.
A’s: 3,13 B’s: 1,14 C’s: 5,8
#1 Harbored Memories (8:1) has fired in every race so far. He has two wins and three seconds in his career and he is getting very good right now. His last two races have been wins and he’s been acting more professionally in being able to settle and explode when asked. He seems to be putting it all together and he should get a great ground saving trip.
#3 Crew Dragon (6:1) is an east coast turf horse running out on the west coast and that’s usually a recipe for success. Three back in his maiden win he only got to run the last 1/16 of a mile as he was blocked and shuffled most of the way. He didn’t have the most comfortable trip two back but still ran on nicely for second. He was against the grain for the second part of the race last time while losing to some decent animals. The third place finisher returned to run third in the Belmont Derby.
#13 Whatmakessamyrun (7:2) will probably go favorite after two smashing sprint wins earning an 88 and 90 Beyer. If he can stretch out, he’ll be super tough to beat but he drew the 13 post, and I think he’ll be lower than 7:2 which does not entice me on the win end.
#14 Hockey Dad (20:1) is my bomber. If he can work out a trip from out there he can be a price in the exotics. His one route going long was a very, very easy win, much easier than it looks on paper. His stakes race wasn’t bad at all when he broke from the outside slot and was against the grain. These exotics will pay great.
How I’ll bet this race:
$30 exacta: 3 / 13 = $30
$10 exacta: 3 / 1,14 = $20
$10 exacta: 13 / 3 = $10
$5 exacta: 1,14 / 3 = $10
$1 trifecta: 3 / 13 / 1,14 = $2
$1 trifecta: 3 / 1,13,14 / 1,13,14 = $6
$1 trifecta: 3 / 1,5,8,13,14 / 1,5,8,13,14 = $20
$1 trifecta: 13 / 3 / 1,14 = $2
$1 trifecta: 13 / 3 / 1,5,8,13,14 = $5
$1 trifecta: 1,14 / 3 / 1,5,8,13,14 = $8