There are two fillies racing at Keeneland on Friday that I really think have major chances to outrun their big morning line odds. Both are facing some tough opponents, but both are worthy of a second look when planning your wagers.
Virginia Key for Todd Pletcher looks every bit as tough as her 8-5 morning line would suggest. And if she’s ready to run off her near-miss in the Gazelle back in April, she will probably take this. But 5-Miz K ran really well in defeat at Churchill Downs last month, and just might be able to outrun Virginia Key early and lead them much farther than her 12-1 morning line odds say she should. She also cuts back ever so slightly to a mile from the 1 1/16 mile she faced last time when passed by two of the foes she’ll meet today. Look, it’s a value play. She might find herself alone up front, and Virginia Key might need a race. Then, 12-1 might look like a gift as they turn for home.
Race 9- The Alcibiades
Restless Rider is likely the real deal and in my opinion, is the most likely winner here. But I’d urge you to go back and watch the replays for 6-Into Trouble. She broke her maiden at first asking at Ellis, and didn’t run like a sprinter. She drew off nicely late and it seemed to me that she’d look even better as the distances got longer. Then they moved her to the synthetic in the Arlington Washington Lassie, where she had some minor trouble at the break, found herself in last early, and then went by them all with seemingly little effort and was geared down while winning by almost 3. So she overcame trouble and completely changed running style, demonstrating her versatility. And Jose Ortiz picks up the mount. At 15-1 on the morning line, I think Into Trouble is one you absolutely can’t ignore. I just don’t think we are looking at a sprinter here. Full disclosure: I am a sucker for horses that can win at 7F, and an even bigger sucker when they do it twice to start their career.