For starters, I think I have accepted the fact that this Saratoga meet just doesn’t want to be my friend. It happens. Other than one, lonely cold double that I hit while traveling back from Del Mar, I just haven’t made the big score that I’ve been able to make in past years. With Travers weekend coming up and the obligation every horseplayer has to dive into that card, I think I need to tread lightly and protect the bankroll at the Spa in the closing weeks of the meet.
Del Mar has been a little better to me than Saratoga, but I’ve still struggled for most of the meet. So with that said, the plays today will be limited to two stabs at prices who will probably lose but who might offer value if the race shape ends up in their favor. In the Alabama at Saratoga, we might see an interesting dynamic develop between Talk Veuve to Me and She’s a Julie. Both have early speed, and with She’s a Julie being the Asmussen stablemate of the race favorite, Midnight Bisou, it will not surprise me if She’s a Julie forces Talk Veuve to Me into a speed duel in an effort to set the race up for Midnight Bisou’s closing kick. Which leads me to my next opinion. I’m not convinced that Midnight Bisou wants to go this far. Heck, I don’t know if ANY of them want to go this far. So if we get a hot pace, the race might shape up for Figarella’s Queen at a big price. So if the tote board reads anything over 10-1 for Figarella’s Queen, she’s the play for me.
In the Pacific Classic, I have no interest whatsoever in making a big play against Accelerate. I’m partially hoping he’ll win, win again once more before November, and then go into the Breeders’ Cup Classic as the favorite so I can bet against him. But for today, I’m willing to take a bit of a chance that Dr. Dorr can get there early lead all to himself and forget to stop. His last few races have been really poor, so we should get a nice price on Dr. Dorr. So that’s my only opinion. I’d love to see Pavel win as a fan. But they all need to hope Accelerate has an off day if they want to take the winner’s share of the $1M purse.
Tread lightly and wait for next weekend. That’s the plan for me.