No matter what speed figures you use, Newspaperofrecord appears to be something approaching a stand-out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Chad Brown has won the race two years in a row, and his filly will be heavily bet to make it three. Her biggest threats appear to come from Europe, and if my eyes aren’t deceiving me, the one who is most capable of firing a shot good enough to beat the favorite is not the one who bettors will pick second.
Just Wonderful from Team Ballydoyle seems likely to go to post as the second choice in the wagering. It’s conceivable that Concrete Rose could snag that distinction, but I bet it will be Just Wonderful. The current fourth choice on the morning line is Lily’s Candle. And if we get the 8-1 price that the morning line suggests, she’s one you need to consider for a win bet.
In the replay below, she’s in the orange silks. You’ll want to watch for yourself, but note the late swing to the outside to find clear sailing in the final 400 meters. And note the furious late rally. Then go dig up her start two back against the boys and watch that too, while noting that she’s beaten males twice in her career already (not an unusual thing in Europe, granted). I think you’ll come away with the impression that she’s a major threat to Newspaperofrecord. I want to see what the experts say about the Churchill Downs turf condition and how the Euros will handle the going. But for now, all things considered, Lily’s Candle is live.