Saturday Churchill Downs Pick 5 Analysis


Full disclosure: This is going to be an expensive ticket, but it represents my entire bankroll for the day. Yes, you heard that right. This is the only play I am making all day. The reason is because I think there are some favorites on the Churchill Downs card today that are vulnerable, and I have a strong opinion on a non-favorite that I am going to single. Ordinarily, I would just bet that horse to win. But I think given the guaranteed $500,000 Pick 5 pool, I can justify a ticket of this magnitude.

Leg 1-Race 7- The Shawnee

I’ve never bought into the Dunbar Road hype, although even I have to admit that if she runs her best race, she’s the filly to beat. You have to use her, and I think you have to use She’s a Julie too. But both Vault and Awe Emma offer appeal as alternatives to the favorites. Awe Emma just might make the lead and take them a long way. Vault picks up Joel Rosario in her second start for Brad Cox. I hate going four-deep when two-deep will likely get the job done. But what the heck. 3-4-6-8 to start off the Pick 5.

Leg 2-Race 8- The Tepin

Again, another race where going two-deep isn’t crazy, as both Sharing and Alms probably combine to give you around a 40% or 50% chance of making it through this leg. But we all know this isn’t the goal for either, and others have a recency edge over the top two. Walk In Marrakesh, my win bet in here, really had a tough trip almost from start to finish last out. I think she’s going to be right there at a price. Outburst just beat that one and is all class. With Moral Reasoning, you get Chad Brown and Joel Rosario on a filly who will be a price. And Eve of War for Todd Pletcher has been bet in all three starts and cuts back from 9 furlongs. 3-7-9-12-14-15 in Leg 2.

Leg 3- Race 9- The Blame

At first I was going to single Owendale and just hope that the race fell apart and he blew by them all late at a distance that probably isn’t his best. Then I was going to toss him completely. In the end, he’s one of four I’ll use in a completely wide-open one-turn mile event. I’m not sure I think Global Campaign has superstar potential, but if he can survive the early pace, he’s going to take some beating. Mr. Money loves Churchill Downs and I think you can toss his last. And Snapper Sinclair is one that seems to step up and run huge when you don’t expect it, so there is no way I’m letting him beat me. 3-8-10-13 in Leg 3.

Leg 4- Race 10- The Matt Winn

I’m taking a big risk here because I need to go deep in the next leg and this ticket is getting expensive as it is. Maxfield is obviously prepping for bigger things off the long layoff here. He’s clearly very talented but I’m going to dismiss him and single Major Fed. I loved his effort in the Louisiana Derby and I think he’s going to run huge here. I swear I don’t have a thing for Joel Rosario, but he adds to the appeal. Single the 12, Major Fed. Play of the Day.

Leg 5- Race 11- The War Chant

This is an unreal betting race. It’s not hard to make a case for so many of these. I know it’s gutless but I’m using the ALL button here. There is no way I’m going 10-deep and tossing three.

So, that’s 4x6x4x1x13, for a total of 1,248 combinations. At $0.50 per combination, that’s a $624 play. Good luck.

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