Should we even try to beat Shancelot?


If Beyer Speed Figures are your thing, and if you believe that Shancelot should have things his own way up front early in the Allen Jerkens today at Saratoga, then you probably feel he’s an obvious single in all of your multi-race plays.

However, if you think that there is no way Irad Ortiz aboard Call Paul allows Shancelot, breaking just one spot to the left in post 1, to get away to a clear and uncontested lead, then perhaps you can make a case that those two will run each other into the ground, setting the race up for a closer.

I admit, based on what we’ve seen in Shancelot’s first three career starts, that he’s going to be immensely tough to defeat today. But if he bounces far enough off that 121 Amsterdam Beyer after getting hooked by Call Paul early, who benefits?

What about Rowayton?

Maybe it was the sloppy track that did him in last out in the Curlin. He’s run poorly over an off track before. Or maybe he just doesn’t want to route. Either way, it seems logical that the turn-back to 7 furlongs will suit him here. If you exclude his performances on wet tracks and those at a distance of 1 mile or more, his career Beyer Speed Figure progression goes from 75 to 90 to 97. Another forward move today, combined with a regression from Shancelot, might make Rowayton a win candidate.

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