Do you think Sistercharlie will be the post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf? Because I don’t. I think it will be Wild Illusion or maybe even Magic Wand. Just my opinion. As a handicapper, while we are supposed to search for things that no one else sees, we don’t ever want to assume that we are smarter than everyone else. So when something seems at least moderately clear to me, I have to assume others see it to. And what I see in Sistercharlie is a very solid American grass filly who did some nice things in Europe and then came to America and has done nothing wrong against the likes of Fourstar Crook and Ultra Brat…at distances up to 10 furlongs.
She’ll need to navigate an extra furlong in this spot, and of course she has every right to do so. But she’ll need to do it against not only against the likes of her Chad Brown stablemates, but also a handful of Euros who look like they would eat American turf fillies as an appetizer before taking on each other for lunch. Do you really think Magic Wand, who has missed consecutive Group 1 wins at Longchamp by a head and a length, would struggle with Fourstar Crook? Because I don’t, but Sistercharlie did just that. And what about Wild Illusion? She’s coming off two straight Group 1 wins, albeit at 10 furlongs. But she’s good, and a heck of a lot better than anything Sistercharlie has faced in America.
Sistercharlie can win the Filly and Mare Turf. But at 3-1? No thanks. I’d rather use Fourstar Crook at twice the price if I had to take an American.