Taking in a card of nighttime racing at Churchill Downs must be an amazing experience, and I am embarrassed to say I have never done it.
Hopefully I’ll make it to Louisville for a night under the lights soon. But in the meantime, I’ll have to watch from my couch. Luckily Saturday’s races are being televised live on NBCSN. My kids will be disappointed they won’t be able to watch cartoons before bed.
Not surprisingly, I have a few opinions which I hope to turn into some extra spending money for my trip to London next week. And the silks of one J. Paul Reddam are the colors I hope to see hit the wire first more than once.
My big bet of the night, in an attempt to really cash a big ticket, will be an ice cold double of Mopotism in the Fleur de Lis with Pavel in the Foster. Reddam owns both. Doug O’Neill trains both. Mario Gutierrez rides both. Both should be a price. Might I get 40-1 on a double? I’m giving Mopotism one more chance to break my spirit. I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve lost on her. If she does me wrong again, it will be the last time. Pavel is another story. While he’s fallen a little short of the lofty expectations his connections had for him, I feel like he hasn’t gotten credit for some big efforts. He’ll be facing Irish War Cry who really seems to have a hard time putting two big races together, and Backyard Heaven who is definitely the most likely winner but will offer no value. I expect to see Pavel around 4-1, so a win bet doesn’t excite me unless the odds creep up a little higher. That’s why I’ll hope for the Reddam double.
Ax Man should win the Matt Winn. And something tells me World Approval isn’t the same horse he once was. I have no hard facts to base this on. It’s really just a gut feeling. I don’t know who I’d take to beat him so maybe just pass on the race. You’re allowed to do that, ya know.
If you’re going to be at Churchill Downs on Saturday, I’m jealous of you. Hope to see you out there myself next time.