At LoneSpeed, we respect favorites but try to beat them with value plays whenever we can. And in Saturday’s Late Pick 4 sequence at Saratoga starting with Race 9, there are three horses we like as possible upsetters at a price.
Race 9- The Saranac
Raging Bull is a very logical favorite and certainly appears to be the most-likely winner of the race. But when constructing your vertical and horizontal wagers, give a long look to 6-Hot Springs. After two consecutive impressive wins on the grass at Churchill Downs for Steve Asmussen, he ran in that quirky Kent Stakes at Delaware Park. That’s the race where Untamed Domain couldn’t get through on the rail, Carrick had a bit of a weird trip, and fellow Saranac entrant Golden Brown got in the clear late and won at 15-1. Carrick came back to win the Secretariat don’t forget. But Hot Springs found a bit of trouble late in the game too, and when he finally got through on the rail, he made the most of his space and ran well late to be 2nd. With literally every other horse in here already being a stakes winner, Hot Springs may be a little overlooked. And he’s live.
Race 10- The Spinaway
All eyes will be on Chasing Yesterday for Baffert and Mike Smith. And for good reason. But don’t sleep on her fellow California invader 10-Reflect. Reflect won her debut impressively, and then made kind of a weird move in the Sorrento. She broke from post 8, worked her way to the inside, made what seemed to be a bit of an early move to reach contention, and then flattened out behind some pretty nice fillies who will try to win the Del Mar Debutante this weekend. We know California is loaded with 2yo fillies, so it’s no wonder Chasing Yesterday and Reflect ended up here. Trainer Keith Desormeaux must think she’s got a lot of ability to ship her out here. And maybe they’d simply be happy with black type. But I won’t be leaving her off my tickets for the win spot.
Race 12- The Glens Falls
Not surprisingly, this graded grass event has three from Chad Brown. Take your pick. But 8-Lady Montdore just might find herself on the early lead in a race that doesn’t appear to have much speed signed on. Yeah, one of the Browns might take that role to set the race up for the other two. But Lady Montdore just decimated an allowance field at this exact distance over this surface. And if she does clear early from the outside, they’ll have to catch her late. I don’t need to tell you to respect all three of Brown’s fillies. But respect Lady Montdore too. I’m guessing she was sent here from Europe because she favors firmer turf based on what we can see in the PPs below. And note the win this month was NOT on firm turf. So if we get firm ground on Saturday, that might help her even more.