What a difference a year makes

Edit: Please stop reading now. I’m embarrassed.

A mere 12 months ago, Well Defined was sent to post as the 9/2 third wagering choice in the Tampa Bay Derby, just one race after winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes and becoming a graded stakes winner. Well Defined could manage only 8th that day, and has failed to win in five subsequent starts. That all could change for Well Defined on Thursday at Gulfstream Park. Assuming of course he is not scratched, as he has not had a recorded workout since February 28th and hasn’t raced since February 7th.

A field of seven are entered in this optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles over the main track, and Well Defined is 8/1 on the morning line as one of two entered for a $25k tag. We know that bettors often are not lucky enough to see the tote board mirror the morning line at Gulfstream, and to be honest it’s hard for me to believe we’ll see 8/1 on Well Defined. Among his six competitors are four horses that have run for a tag of $16k or less in recent starts.

Does class mean anything? Maybe it doesn’t. If it does, I think you have to assume Well Defined is the one to beat, even with the questionable recent form. He’s just been facing much tougher than these. And doesn’t it seem odd that he’d be protected in a $100k claimer in his last start, but then offered for a $25k tag here, over a track where he has two wins, including one is a stakes race at this very distance?

I’m betting he scratches and this post was a waste of everyone’s time.