Where We Stand

It’s here.  Breeders’ Cup Week is here.  The post position draw is today.  The fields will be set.  And final handicapping preparations can begin as we will have all the information we need to visualize race shape, pace, etc.  Personally, I am far from done with my handicapping, and there are very few races where I am committed to a selection.  Essentially, everything can still change.  But my wagers are starting come into a preliminary focus, and this is where I think I stand at the moment.

On Friday, we start with the Juvy Turf Sprint.  I don’t foresee a big wager for me here.  Once we know who is actually in the field and from which post they will break, I suppose something could jump out at me.  Next is the Juvy Fillies Turf.  It sure seems like Newspaperofrecord will be a short price.  On speed figures, she is a standout.  I might try to play a double starting with her and ending with one or two fillies in the Juvy Fillies.  At the moment, Serengeti Empress and Restless Rider are likely going to be my top two in there.  I am totally off Cookie Dough after a review of her Throro-Graph numbers.  She isn’t fast enough.  Bellafina won’t offer any value but it’s hard to make a case against her.  In the Juvy Turf, I am a little interested in Current but I am still reviewing the Euro replays.  And in the Juvenile, I am on record as saying Complexity will be my top pick.  And I may adjust that from “top pick” to “most likely winner”, as a new colt has emerged as my potential play after review of the replays.  I still really like Complexity.  Let’s see how the draw shakes out and come back to that race.

On Saturday, we start with the F&M Sprint.  I am going to take a long look at Golden Mischief over the next few days.  You should too. Obviously Marley’s Freedom is the one to beat.  In the Turf Sprint, I need to decide if Jason Servis can bring his magic to Churchill Downs.  He has three lives ones in here.  City of Light might end up favored in the Dirt Mile, but he’ll be my play unless something weird happens this week.  The F&M Turf looks like a Euro rout to me.  I know some people love Sistercharlie but I just think the Euros are better and more likely.  In the Sprint, I’ll find a way to bet Roy H and Whitmore.  Not sure how just yet. I have an interesting opinion or two in the Mile which I want to give some more thought to before I share.  Same for the Distaff.  Everyone has handed the Turf to Enable already, so the next few days will be about me trying to decide from among three or four others, and how to play them.  And I have been on seven different horses for the Classic in the last 24 hours.  Stay tuned there.

It’s gonna be a busy week.

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