25-1 on Takaful seems….low

It’s always fun to think about catching a big price on a sneaky horse to win a big race weeks or months in advance.  I’ve hit a few in my day, including Monarchs at 17-1 (could have had 10-1 on Derby Day), and Giacomo at about 50-1 (same price as Derby Day).  I’ve missed way more than I’ve hit, for sure.  It’s definitely been a losing proposition for me.  And since I don’t live in Las Vegas and because my early Breeders’ Cup Classic sneaky longshot pick, Instilled Regard, wasn’t offered in the recent future wager, I decided to shop around today to see what kind of price I could find online.  Looks like he’s available at 50-1 in a couple places.  If I really loved his chances, I could always fly out to Vegas and place a bet myself.  And with Instilled Regard racing this weekend in the Pennsylvania Derby, there is a real chance his price could drop by the end of the weekend.  (Note: If anyone reading this plans to be in Vegas this week, please let me know.)

While shopping, I glanced at the online odds for whatever BC races I could find.  No real surprises.  A couple retired horses were offered here and there.  Good Magic was still 5-1 in the Classic, and while the announcement that he is out for the year only came out today, it seems odd that he’d be offered at that price given the well-known fact that he’s been on the farm since the Travers.  It gives the impression that whoever sets the odds at the offshore books isn’t really paying attention.  Case in point….

Notice the odds being offered by Bovada for the BC Sprint.  Notice the odds on Takaful.  25-1.  There are a few reasons why I feel that price is way, way low.

  1. He hasn’t raced all year
  2. He hasn’t recorded a workout all year
  3. He’s dead

Yes, Takaful is deceased.  It’s been known for months.

So anyway, if you are in Vegas, send me an email at lonespeed@lonespeed.com or hit me up on Twitter @justindew.  Thanks.

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