74-1…for now

The Breeders’ Cup Future Wager closes on Sunday night at 6pm for the Classic and at 6:30 for the Turf.  As of this writing, we only have $23k in the pool for the Classic and just over $3k has been wagered on the Turf.  So just about any decent-sized wager you make will have a profound effect on the odds unless and until we see more money pour in.  For comparison’s sake, Pool 1 of the Classic Future Wager drew $86k total.

Roaring Lion is part of both the Classic and Turf fields for this round of wagering.  He races next in the Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 20th, and his participation in any event at Churchill Downs is far from certain.  That said, at his current odds of 74-1 in the Classic pool, I think he’s an interesting play.

With the Turf at 1 1/2 miles and the Classic a 1/4 mile shorter, it’s worth noting that Roaring Lion’s recent success has come at 1 1/4 miles, or thereabouts.  And while yes, Kitten’s Joy is primarily known as a turf sire, I am told by people who follow sire stats closely that Kitten’s Joy has been known to produce some good runners on dirt.  What is more, we remember what happened at Churchill Downs in 2000, when Giant’s Causeway darn near won the Classic.  And in 2001 when Sakhee almost won the Classic at Belmont. Were it not for Tiznow, both turf-to-dirt attempts would have been successful.  Yeah, those were a long time ago and I’m kind of reaching here to make a point.  But I think I have a point.  Grass horses can carry their class to dirt from time to time, and it’s happened at Churchill Downs in this race before.  So if Roaring Lion stays upwards of 50-1 in this wager, I think you’d be stupid not to take a small swing.