A cold double for your Thursday enjoyment

With a big weekend of racing in store for us, let’s try to pad the bankroll with a creative little double play that requires us to dig deep into the past performances to find an angle that others might overlook or dismiss.

But first, a bit of a history lesson for some of you newer horse racing fans.  Back in the late 1990s, a filly by the name of Keeper Hill won some pretty big races.  The Kentucky Oaks and Spinster, for example.  She died a few years ago, but before passing on, she gave birth to a Candy Ride colt who would be named Fawree.  Fawree began his racing career in Dubai, where he ran in some big races for three-year-olds but failed to win any of them.  But before THAT he broke his maiden against a horse named Bee Jersey.  Yes, THAT Bee Jersey.

Of course, that win by Fawree over Bee Jersey was over a year-and-a-half ago, and Fawree has raced four times since then without managing a board finish.  But that’s why we will get at least 5-1 on him today in Del Mar’s 2nd race, which in my opinion lacks any horses to be truly scared of.  I think a return to his best will give Fawree the win. Of course, he needs to run better than he has.  And then in the 3rd race, I really like the expected favorite, Bank Walker, who knocked heads with some pretty good horses last summer at Del Mar, including Bolt d’Oro.  He took almost a year off, returned in a sprint last month when losing to the speedy Kershaw, and now gets a little more ground with a race under his belt for the new connections.

I give Fawree a little bit of a chance in today’s 2nd from Del Mar at a price, but I give Bank Walker a really big chance and when I like two horses in consecutive races, I have to take a swing at the cold double.  This feels like a double that could pay 25-1 on horses with odds of 5-1 and 2-1, which means fair value in the double would be something around 17-1 or so.  So I strongly suspect we will get value here, and that means we have to bet if we like both horses cold.  Which I do.

Del Mar, Race 2, $50 Double 8 with 1

Good Luck

UPDATE:  It happened again.  I pick an 8-1 winner to start a double, and can’t get the favorite home in the second leg.  Moments like this make a man want to stick to win bets.