As I look back at the past performances for Pavel, I notice that he has a habit of running in races that I absolutely crush. Not all of them, obviously. But, if I may…
Jim Dandy Stakes- I had a huge bet on Good Samaritan, who won, while Pavel ran a respectable 4th.
Jockey Club Gold Cup- I loved Diversify that day. He won. Pavel ran a nice 3rd.
Malibu- City of Light was my play of the day on Santa Anita’s opening day last December. He won. Pavel ran 4th.
Stephen Foster- For once Pavel was my top pick, and he rewarded me at 6-1. Unfortunately his stablemate, Mopotism, couldn’t take the first leg of what would have been a rich double for me. Still, it was a good night.
Now we get to see Pavel take on the likes of Accelerate, Dr. Dorr, and the Baffert unknown Roman Rosso, who I suspect is the real deal. We are still two days out from the race, but at this moment I am leaning towards passing the race. Accelerate is capable of leaving this field in the dust, and hasn’t finished worse than 3rd in over two years, other than the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile flop last year. So I am certainly not rushing to bet against him.
Of course, given my history of cashing big tickets when Pavel runs, maybe passing isn’t the right move.