(4:00pm update: I really hope no one read this.)
We’ve got a nifty little carryover in the Aqueduct Pick 6 in store for us today. A free $175k never hurt anyone, right? Let’s take a small swing on a tough card and see if we can get lucky with a clever opinion or two.
Race 3 (Leg 1)
In a field where so many look similar, one who might slip by undetected at a price is the Maryland shipper, 1-Gnarly. It feels like maybe they think they can sneak into town and hook lesser competition and head home with a win and the NW1X condition still intact, as this is a starter allowance. At 12-1 on the morning line, I’ll use him. And I’ll also use 3-Missile Bomb and 7-American Power, who I am thinking may have needed his last. He’s had trouble actually getting back to the track after layoffs, and the last time he actually got a chance to make a second start off a layoff, he won. So its 1, 3, and 7 for me in Leg 1. Gnarly is also my play of the day.
Race 4 (Leg 2)
I could make a case for a few in here, but the two that look like the most likely are 7-Discreet Mission and 8-New York Hero. I’m a little interested in recent maiden-breaker, 2-Local Counsel, so I may use him if I end up going lightly the rest of the way. I’ll use 7 and 8 here, and maybe the 2.
Race 5 (Leg 3)
I guess 7-Moretti is a reasonable single in this leg, but I’m also going to use 3-Lisbon for Mark Casse. I’m sure lots of folks will use Motagally and Erlich as alternatives, but horses like them never run big for me so I’m picking Lisbon in a race that Moretti will probably win. 3 and 7 in Leg 3.
Race 6 (Leg 4)
By using 5-Mo Flash and 2-Smiles from Sadie, I think I have about a 50% chance of making it through this leg relatively cheaply. It feels like they are the classiest of the group to me.
Race 7 (Leg 5)
1-Three to Thirteen is undefeated, at least according to my PPs, in all three starts breaking from the rail. He’s also got a pretty good chance at being the LONESPEED in here. So I’ll use him and 7-Phone Funky Monkey, who has been facing some full fields and running well. This is the first time they’ve ever entered him on dirt, with his lone dirt starts being off-the-turf events. 1 and 7 in Leg 5.
Race 8 (Leg 6)
So we are 3x3x2x2x2 through five legs. That means each horse we use in this leg cost us $144.
As for this leg, if you had to choose, would you rather take Brad Cox off the claim from Phil Serpe with a horse dropping from open $32k to this conditioned $25k level, or Linda Rice off the claim from Todd Pletcher climbing the class ladder from conditioned $16k? I’ll go with Cox, and that leads me to 3-Proximate to Power. And the reason I can’t use both? Because I want to use 10-Curlin Creek and I don’t want to go three deep. 3 and 10 in the finale.
Have fun and good luck.