Trip Alerts
Revisiting the February 7th Issue
We’ve discussed this before here on LoneSpeed. But it’s worth another look based on recent events. While competing on Day 1 of this year’s NHC on February 7th, I noticed that a number of my contest selections at Gulfstream Park were getting beaten by horses that spent most or all of their time down on…
Read MoreBut what about Three Technique?
Talking about Kentucky Derby preps in the context of the actual Kentucky Derby is perhaps a bit silly at this point. We don’t know if the race is going to be run at all, much less when. That said, we can still analyze individual performances and try to uncover efforts that might be better than…
Read MoreBlacktype missed the break and that was it
When you watch the reply of last Saturday’s Fort Lauderdale Stakes from Gulfstream Park, you’ll notice two interesting things just before and just after they break from the gate. First, right before the gates open, Blacktype, in post 6, loses focus for just a brief second as he seems to raise his head and shift…
Read MoreTrip Alert- Carrick
Full disclosure: I bet on Carrick in Saturday’s Hollywood Derby at Del Mar. But even if I had not, I would still be immensely confused as to why Kent Desormeaux made that bold, early move for the lead down the backstretch of a 9 furlong race on grass when his mount, Carrick, was sitting in…
Read MoreMind Your Biscuits- The Final Analysis
Until I watched the replay of the Lukas Classic, I had no intention at all of using Mind Your Biscuits prominently in my Breeders’ Cup Classic wagering. But now, it’s a virtual certainty that he’ll be a big part of my plays. Make no mistake. The breeding isn’t there for 10 furlongs with Mind Your…
Read MoreBreeders’ Cup Contender Trip Alert: Pocket Dynamo
Allow me to direct your attention to the past performances for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Horse #12, Pocket Dynamo, and his most recent start in the Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket on October 12th. The winner that day was one of the favorites for this race, Sergei Prokofiev. And that one ran well, for…
Read MoreTrip Alert- Blossom Trail Miss
We’ll keep this short. Go watch the replay of today’s (Oct 24) 6th race at Keeneland and note what happened to #10 Blossom Trail Miss in the final 1/4 mile. Or you can add her to your stable mail and just take my word for it. Suffice it so say, she had trouble more than…
Read MoreConsecutive Excuses
It may be simply because I bet on him and lost on Sunday at Keeneland, but it appeared to me that Prolific now has two legitimate excuses for bad performances following his debut win at Belmont last fall. Let’s start with his second career start, which was last April at Keeneland. He did virtually no…
Read MoreTrip Alert- Derby Date
I have no idea if D. Wayne Lukas will try or even be able to get Derby Date into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field, given he has yet to record even a single win. But if Derby Date does find himself in the BC starting gate, I think you owe it to yourself as a…
Read MoreTrip Alert: A horse can only run so fast
UPDATE: The fractional times for the Woodbine Mile are currently under video review, calling the entire point of this post into question. Half-way into Saturday’s Woodbine Mile, Lord Glitters was a full 10 lengths behind leader and eventual winner Oscar Performance. By the time the race was over, Lord Glitters had managed to cut that…
Read More