Churchill Downs Pick 3 for Saturday

There are two favorites late in the Saturday Churchill card that I think are a little on the vulnerable side, and being that both are part of the same Pick 3 sequence, I think this is a good spot to try and crush a slim play.

Race 8

Curate takes his 2 for 2 record into this N2X event at 6F under Calvin Borel, and he really should go favored.  The rail draw did’t hurt him at Keeneland last out, and shouldn’t be too much of a problem today.  And even if Rockshaw doesn’t have the juice to battle him for the lead early, I think the class and recent form that 5-Totally Boss brings to the table should be enough to run down even a loose Curate.  I’m not sure that’s we’ll get 5-1 like the ML suggests, but Totally Boss should be no better than third choice in the wagering.

Race 9

You can draw a line through the very honest turf effort last out for 8-Nitrous if you want.  He was bothered at the start and still ran on well late.  Before that, his effort at the distance in the Grade 1 Hopeful should be more than enough to win this unless Classy John is better than I think, which is certainly possible.  I like Nitrous better.

Race 10

It seems likely that Hot Springs and his 3 for 3 CD grass record will take the most money in this Grade 3 turf event, but there are two in here that might be worth a look if you want to beat him.  I’ll start with 4-March to the Arch, who exits some tough turf stakes in NY, one of which was a Saranac effort that bested Hot Springs.  But because I’m a little concerned that Saturday’s yielding course condition might make it tough for March to the Arch to close effectively, I’m going to use 2-Marzo in case he clears early and steals this.

Since we don’t have a single in each race, we can’t call it a cold Pick 3.  So let’s call it a chilly Pick 3.

5 WITH 8 WITH 2,4

Good luck.