Immediately after Complexity won the Champagne for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables, I declared in front of the entire human population of Planet Earth that he would be my play in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. And after Knicks Go stole the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, I posted here at LoneSpeed that Derby Date was the sneaky horse out of that race. However, wearing the same silks and running for the same trainer as Complexity, and exiting the same race as Derby Date, was a horse I certainly noticed but somehow didn’t really and truly discover until this evening. Again, I want to be clear- I saw the move that Standard Deviation made in the Breeders’ Futurity. And yes, I was impressed. But tonight, after reviewing the updated PPs of the BC Juvy probables and noticing how much speed we might see in the race, I am now much more interested in Standard Deviation than I was before.
To be clear, I still really like Complexity in the Juvenile. And I won’t be so dumb as to exclude Game Winner from my wagers. And while I don’t typically like to make these Cup Spotlights about my wagering opinions, it’s fair to say that I think it’s highly probable that Standard Deviation will be prominent in my Juvy plays. For one reason, it really is starting to look like there will be an honest-to-fast pace in the race. Let’s wait to see who ends up drawing in before we get to excited. But as of now, I count no fewer than six potential pace setters, some of whom have never been around two turns. And typically I don’t like playing closers. But it just may be the thing to do in this race, and you could do a lot worse than Standard Deviation. He really made an impressive move at Keeneland, which was obvious when watching live and even more clear on replay. And in addition to coming from way back as most of the top finishers were up close, Standard Deviation was wide around both turns. He ran big. And you have to respect these human connections at all times. And with the same folks sending out Complexity, who drew off in gate-to-wire fashion in the Champagne, might there be a team effort at play? Could Complexity’s role to be to go out there and try to win by running them off their feet, and at the same time making sure anyone who goes with him has nothing left to hold off Standard Deviation? It would not be the first time we saw that kind of cooperation.
We have two weeks to go. We are past time to start getting to know all of these runners. And I think once you get to know Standard Deviation, you’ll be at least moderately intrigued.