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We may be on the verge of seeing a horse that debuted for a $16,000 tag win the Kentucky Derby. I mean, that could actually happen. Maximum Security is undefeated and has put up some speed figures that make him plenty competitive with this bunch. No matter how you slice it, he’s a threat and you should take him seriously.
On the other hand, what can we draw from his win in the Florida Derby? He absolutely stole that race. Bodexpress was never going by. Hidden Scroll was poorly ridden. And closers Code of Honor and Bourbon War just weren’t able to show their kick relative to the front runners given the slow pace. Both of them actually lost ground late as Maximum Security had enough juice to kick clear. So, let’s not say Maximum Security was an undeserving winner. Let’s just say he has a lot to prove.
With just one prior route attempt, is he likely to go to the lead in the Kentucky Derby, set a half mile fraction of :46.3, stay comfortable, open up, and draw off? I’d have to say no. I think in order for him to be competitive, he would need to either luck into another slow pace and do it alone, or find a new dimension and stalk. And I don’t think either of those scenarios are likely.
Ultimately, I’ll have to pass on Maximum Security and leave him off the top two spots on my main tickets. He might be good enough to beat me, but I’m going to bet that he isn’t.