I’ve lost money betting horses like Vibrance

You’re looking over the past performances for Saturday’s Starlet at Los Al, and you happen to notice that neither of the two Baffert-trained fillies, Mother Mother or Chasing Yesterday, have been two turns.  Then you decide to watch the replay of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, again.  And you come to the conclusion that Vibrance ran pretty well.  And another careful review of her PPs shows that Vibrance has four career starts around two turns.  That’s more than the rest of the field combined.  So you decide that Vibrance is the play in the Starlet, and you might even get 3-1.

In the past, for me, horses like Vibrance have been an absolutely terrible bet.  In no way, shape, or form am I saying she can’t win on Saturday.  She clearly can.  There is definitely a lot of talent in this daughter of Violence.  Trainer Michael McCarthy is having an amazing year.  But in every race other than her maiden win against five foes, she has lost ground in the stretch.  In the Breeders’ Cup, she rode the rail the entire way and had a pretty clean trip.  And it’s interesting to note that on Saturday, she’ll have her fifth different rider in as many races.

If a field of six can have a wise guy horse, I think Vibrance is it for the Starlet.  People will see the company she’s been keeping and they’ll decide her class edge makes her the one to play.  It won’t surprise me if she ends up as the second choice in the betting.  Regardless, for me the play is Oxy Lady.  Before her graded stakes win in the one-turn Tempted, she ran two nice races around two turns.  Her last-out Beyer of 94 towers over this field.  And she’ll likely be in the area of 5-1.  I think she’s the play.