LoneSpeed Preakness Analysis

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Fresh off our backdoor, DQ-aided $11,000 Kentucky Derby score, we are back with some hot, juicy, downright freaky Preakness analysis and wagering suggestions. Make sure you have a change of pants nearby before reading.

There is one horse, and ONLY one horse, that interests me in the slightest here, and that horse is Bourbon War. No, I am not expecting anywhere near the 12-1 morning line, and yes, I’ll feel lucky to get 8-1. But that doesn’t matter that much if you want my honest opinion. Even at 6-1, I still think he’s the play for me.

I don’t trust Improbable. Not at all. Sure, he’s got ability. But he’ll be way overbet in the Preakness and I don’t fancy his chances. As for War of Will, he proved me wrong with his solid Derby run. But as a result of that well-publicized effort, I see him being overbet as well. Both he and Improbable can win for sure. So take your chances at the low prices if you must.

Both Owendale and Laughing Fox intrigue me. I have no issue as a handicapper drawing a line through certain races. Especially with horses this young. And if you take that approach with both, you can make a case that they have big shots in here.

Horses that can burn me badly are Anothertwistafate and Alwaysmining. Both should see support at the windows, but I don’t get the feeling that either of them is an elite racehorse. That’s not to say they are incapable of winning. And if the pace is slowish upfront, either or both could stick around a while. But I’m taking a stand against both on the grounds that others are just better.

Warrior’s Charge scares me a little, and I might decide to work him into my plays at the last minute.

So here is the wagering strategy:

Depending on the tote board, I may or may not play Bourbon War to win. If he dips down to 6-1 or lower, I’ll probably pass on the win bet. At 10-1, I’m in. Anything in the middle will depend on my mood.

I’m going for the trifecta multiple times. So I’ll key Bourbon War 1st and 2nd, surrounded by the other horses I like and the ones that I feel like I have to use to avoid feeling totally stupid.

Ticket 1

1st: Bourbon War

2nd: War of Will, Improbable, Owendale, Laughing Fox

3rd: War of Will, Improbable, Owendale, Laughing Fox

Ticket 2

1st: War of Will, Improbable, Owendale, Laughing Fox

2nd: Bourbon War

3rd: War of Will, Improbable, Owendale, Laughing Fox