Gulfstream Park Race 6- #6 Hilltop Harmony (6/1)
Two days in a row, we have given out Plays of the Day that ran absolutely huge races but failed to win. We’ll spare you a breakdown of what happened with Wednesday’s play Took a Cab if you’ll promise to go back and watch the replay (GP Race 2). Suffice it to say, he ran a winning race.
What Took a Cab also did, in my opinion, was add credence to my theory that the rail was a very good place to be at Gulfstream Park on February 7th, and that for some horses, being off the rail around the turn and into the stretch hurt their chances. I’ve written about this in more than one post this week, so, again, I will try to avoid repeating myself too much. So far, LoneSpeed has touted two horses that ran wide that day. One of them, Trappezoid, came back to win in a romp at 3/1. Took a Cab lost but ran well enough to win. Hilltop Harmony is our third highlight horse, and if she runs like the other two, the 6/1 morning line would be a gift if we can get it.
Sent off at 5/2 in Race 3 on February 7th and breaking from the rail, Hilltop Harmony found herself well off the rail as they entered the far turn. Her steady retreat through the field began at that point. Conversely, one of her foes in here today, #3 A Song for Sue, rode the rail the whole way around the turn in the same race before darting to the outside when needing room and catching them all but the winner at 48/1. If my theory is correct, Hilltop Harmony took the worst of it while A Song for Sue took full advantage and ran a dressed-up race. Maybe that’s why A Song for Sue is 12/1 on the morning line today.
Of course, this could also be a product of the sloppy surface early in the day on February 7th. Either way, there is a case to be made that Hilltop Harmony can be expected to run a much improved race today.
All of the above being said, there are several others in here that fit and can win. From my standpoint, the angle with Hilltop Harmony is that the effort last out will drive the price way above fair value. Does that make her the most likely winner? Probably not. That said, if Beyer Speed Figures are your thing, a repeat of the 69 two back or the 75 three back should be good enough to win this. We also have a barn change which certainly does not seem to be disadvantageous.
I’ll play the 6 (6/1) in Race 6. That’s a lot of 6s.