Race 2: #6 Took a Cab
First, a quick word about yesterday’s Play of the Day.
For the most part, we were right. Golden Loch ran huge at 13-1 in Fair Grounds’ 4th. I don’t know if she could have beaten the winner, but without the traffic issues in mid-stretch, she would have been much closer at the end. We knew her price was going to be heavily influenced by the prior start, where she earned a 53 Beyer that was in no way indicative of her ability. And she ran a 72 yesterday. It’s frustrating to be “right” about a price horse and come away with nothing. In the end, I think you have to trust your process and know that over time, opinions like the one we had on Golden Loch will yield positive results. Now, on to Wednesday’s Play of the Day.
Earlier this week, I wrote about a possible track bias at Gulfstream Park on February 7th. I’ll say again, it’s very possible this is a figment of my imagination, enhanced by more than one tough beat at the NHC. That said, there is at least some indication that the rail was a very good place to be that day. In Race 1, for instance, the 1-2-3 finishers hugged the rail or were down inside almost the entire time. The winner passed horses on the inside late. In that race, Took a Cab was wide(ish) throughout and never seemed to kick it into gear.
I’ll admit that for every two pieces of evidence of an inside bias, there is at least one piece of evidence that the track was fair. Horses certainly were able to close in the middle of the track here and there throughout the card. But some of them spent a lot of time on the inside early, and some of them were big favorites who might have just been better than the rest. One horse with a wide trip on February 7th has already come back to win. And I think at 6/1 on the morning line, it’s worth wagering that Took a Cab can take the needed small step up to win.