Might Limari Offer Value?

In the 7th race at Kentucky Downs on Saturday, Brad Cox’s Limari figures to enter the gate as the favorite, and given the composition of the field, the 5/2 morning line looks about right.

A review of the replays of Limari’s last two races shows that she encountered significant trouble at the start in both, preventing her from leading the way, as she prefers. She didn’t disgrace herself with either effort, almost winning the Mint Julep from off a slow pace, and being wide all the way around the track at Indiana Grand last time.

But the replays show something else, too. In both defeats, she appeared to break just a tad slow before being squeezed, which she was in both races. If you watch the replays of the three races before the two losses, you will notice she broke much quicker each time. Which begs the question, has she forgotten how to break, and does this make her susceptible to trouble early?

This is one of those races where I wish I could see the break before betting. If Limari breaks well, I think 5/2 is perhaps generous value. How many horses have you seen roll through their allowances conditions on the grass at the Fair Grounds, going 3 for 3 in the process, and then win at Keeneland to extend the streak to four? Then, she was the best horse in the Mint Julep. And with a clean break today, I’ll bet she wins at Kentucky Downs.

But with a slow break, she’ll have her hands full against some talented turf fillies.