There is roughly a 93% chance that I bet on Complexity in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. And while he’d be worthy of even-money odds most years, the presence of the undefeated Game Winner from California and the hard-luck Champagne runner-up Code of Honor will likely result in a overlaid price on Chad Brown’s phenom.
Let’s start with Code of Honor. Everyone saw him stumble at the break, drop to the back, gain ground, circle the field, and rally to be a good 2nd. Code of Honor will be the most over-bet horse of Breeders’ Cup Friday. And he’s good, for sure. But he’ll take way more money than he should. The truth is that Complexity went really fast early, and both Code of Honor and 4th place finisher Aurelius Maximus were way back early through those testing fractions. They almost had to close well. And they did. So for all the trouble Code of Honor overcame, I think his effort is just a tad dressed up. Just a tad. And I think Call Paul ran well too, as he was right up there near Complexity early, and held off Aurelius Maximus for 3rd. Solid effort by him. Here is the Champagne replay (discussion of Game Winner below….)
Ok, Game Winner. Look, he’s good. Really good. You don’t need me to tell you that. And while I admit I don’t have the trained eye of a horseman, Game Winner doesn’t look anywhere near as smooth and fluid as Complexity in my opinion. And I don’t think he’s as fast early. So in the Breeders’ Cup, I am imagining that Game Winner will have to pass Complexity late. And based on what I’ve seen from their races, I’m not sure I see that happening. What is more, I strongly suspect that based on Beyer Speed Figures, Game Winner will be the shorter price of the two. I can see a tote board looking something like this:
Game Winner: 9-5
Code of Honor: 9-2
Here’s a flimsy argument for ya: Chad Brown lost the Champagne with Good Magic last year, and we saw what Good Magic did in the BC. Now Brown has a Champagne winner headed to the BC. And people are already questioning Complexity’s ability to go two turns. Again, look at what Good Magic did after losing the Champagne and carrying similar distance questions to the BC.
Anyway, my sincere hope is that both Game Winner and Code of Honor make it to the BC Juvenile. Because if they do, I think I might get 5-2 on a horse that probably should be closer to even money.