The Caps hangover may force many of my DC area readers to completely forget about Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, but if you find time to watch and get a bet in, hopefully my 3-year Triple Crown losing streak will come to an end.
Or maybe you’ll make your own bets and win. Whatever. When favorites win, I lose. Let’s get to it.
I said before the Preakness that Justify was not only the most likely winner, but that he was actually likely to win, meaning his chances stood at greater than 50%. In the Belmont, I still he’s the most likely winner. But I think he is more likely to lose than win. It just sorta feels like he might be over-the-top of his peak and in the midst of a regression. Yes, he has put away Good Magic twice. But he and Good Magic didn’t go THAT fast in the Preakness, and Justify was almost run down by Bravazo, who I don’t consider to be an elite racehorse. Not that you need to be an elite racehorse to win the Belmont, but my point is that I just think Justify may have done too much in too short a period of time. He can win for sure. No doubt about it. And I will use him in my multi-race bets. But there is another horse I am keying on in the Belmont.
Before we get to my pick, lets go over the likely 2 thru 5 wagering choices. As far as I am concerned, you can put Hofburg, Tenfold, Vino Rosso, and Bravazo in the same bucket. There are things each of them have done recently that give hope that they can maybe put it all together and win the Belmont. And none of them would shock me, because each of them can win. But to me, they are just ho-hum options. I like Blended Citizen. He ran a really nice race in the Peter Pan, and if you go back and watch his effort in the Blue Grass, I think you’ll agree with me that he is a fighter who just keeps on running. Some people didn’t care for his workout over the Belmont surface this week, and maybe they’re right to dismiss him. But I like his chances at a price.
Of course, Justify might just coast to an easy win and make me look bad. Won’t be the first time.