I distinctly remember calling a buddy in Las Vegas in August of 2004 and asking him to place a wager on Ghostzapper to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He drove to the nearest sportsbook, and called me to say he was being offered at 10-1. I was stunned. “Can you try another sportbook?” I asked. He agreed, and called me a short time later with the same odds. I thanked him for his time, and decided to pass.
That was a mistake.
For starters, it makes no sense to wager on the Classic or Distaff this weekend until the last possible minute. Wagering closes on Sunday evening (6pm ET for the Classic, and 6:30 ET for the Distaff), and you get an entire weekend of observation before plunking down your cash. But, thinking ahead…
It’s interesting to see Catalina Cruiser being offered as a choice in the Classic since Sadler has already said the goal is to run him in the Dirt Mile. So I guess you need to hope something keeps Accelerate out of the Breeders’ Cup and Catalina Cruiser ends up in the Classic instead, right?
Does anyone think we will see 30-1 on Hofburg? Because I do not.
As far as there Classic goes, I think the move is to see how the Travers plays out, decide if anyone ran a sneaky-good race in defeat, and see if you can get some value Sunday night.
I distinctly remember reading the odds on the 2017 Distaff at Wynn last August, seeing my pick, Forever Unbridled listed at 7-1, and telling Eric Wing that I’d likely get close to that price on race day. Instead, I got 7-2. I still think I made the right move by passing.
My only opinion worth sharing regarding this Distaff future wager is that if Mopotism lands around 50-1, she has to be worth a play. I still think one day she will put it all together and get her signature win like Pavel did in the Foster. And maybe that day comes in November at Churchill Downs. Of course that could mean the Falls City but you get my point.