Just because Saturday was another winning day for LoneSpeed readers does not mean we can’t try to learn from our mistakes and figure out why we missed what we missed, right? Let’s dig in.
The costliest mistake of the day was missing Sippican Harbor in the Spinaway. I may not have used her had I gone five-deep in the Pick 4, and since I only went three-deep, the race was a miss for me. So what did we miss? Well, she was the only filly in the field with a prior race at today’s 7 furlong distance. And not only was it a win, but was a 17-length win. Yes, that win came in an off-the-turf event against four foes. But the 77 Beyer Speed Figure she earned made her the third-fastest in this field by that measure. Right there, you have two very solid reasons for backing her. She was not impossible. In retrospect, she was logical. But it always looks like an easy game in hindsight, doesn’t it? The truth is I thought Chasing Yesterday would win, and I included two other price horses that I thought might beef up the Pick 4. I just picked the wrong two.
Other than that, we really didn’t “miss” much in the late Pick 4 at Saratoga today. We used winner Raging Bull in the Saranac and identified him as the most-likely winner while preferring price-play Hot Springs who didn’t really fire while 4th. Yoshida was our second choice and won the Woodward. Woodward long shot play Rally Cry ran a nice race to be 4th. And Lady Montdore took the Glens Falls as our top pick and one of three “interesting horses” we identified on the day. That race went exactly as we suggested it might. We just couldn’t connect on any of the multi-race plays because we missed Sippican Harbor.
All in all, it was a day of moral victories, and real defeats. Luckily Lady Montdore bailed us out at 4-1. But wouldn’t that have been something if Rally Cry could have somehow managed to complete the exacta?
It’s also inexcusable that I didn’t have the late double of Yoshida to Lady Montdore. A mere $50 play would have returned over $4,000. Sickening and stupid.
Onward and upward. Thanks for reading.