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When to say “Enough!”

LONESPEED HORSE

A major weakness in my handicapping game is an occasional inability to walk away from a horse that I’ve been chasing.  Often, this is out of fear of missing the wedding after suffering through more than one funeral, if you know what I mean.  This fall, Prolific, a three-year-old Godolphin homebred trained by Michael Stidham, has been downright awful for my bankroll.  And he races at Fair Grounds on Saturday.  This time, I’m really going to try not to bet him.  And we all know what that means.

I was competing in the October 14th contest at Keeneland, and Prolific was one of my top opinions of the day. I was willing to forgive the poor effort in start #2, as I assumed he just wasn’t feeling it that day.  So when I got better than 9-1 on him on 10/14, I really thought he was a sneaky play.  And I knew he was toast about ten strides out of the gate.  It was clear to me that he hated the surface, and with the muddy track, that was understandable.  So when he appeared in the entries for the Thanksgiving card at Fair Grounds, this time hitting the grass, I smelled value.  And I was rewarded with another clunker of an effort.  I decided that day that I’d never lose on him again.

But here we go again.  He gets first blinkers on Saturday.  His Beyer in the last start represented improvement.  Stidham is off to a great start at the meet.  And based on his form, he’s gotta be higher than the 12-1 morning line, right?  Purely from a Beyer standpoint, he’s the slowest horse in the race.  And he’s defeated exactly three of the 24 horses he’s faced in his last three starts.

But….he figures to be forwardly placed.  And with the addition of blinkers, he has a right to take a step up off his last.  I can feel myself getting sucked in again.  I think there is some ability in this one, and his last three have been just too bad to be true.

Someone stop me before my bankroll takes another hit.

4 Comments

  1. Rich on December 13, 2018 at 2:23 am

    Looks like he’s in a good spot …

    • Justin Dew on December 13, 2018 at 2:35 am

      Then you can bet him, and win, I’m sure. I’m done with him.

      • Rich on December 13, 2018 at 3:01 am

        I haven’t looked at the race.

        • Justin Dew on December 13, 2018 at 3:06 am

          Dew off. Major angle.

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