Derby Spotlight: Long Range Toddy
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I had been hoping that Long Range Toddy would turn in a good performance in the Arkansas Derby so that he would attract attention at the windows in the Kentucky Derby and I could bet against him. But it was not to be. Although if you like him, it’s easy to excuse his 6th-place finish in his final Derby prep.
Maybe he just doesn’t want to run in the mud. So if you draw a line though his last, you’ve got yourself one of two horses to defeat Improbable. And you’ve got a four-time winner. And he’s run very well in every start, minus the mud flop.
Steve Asmussen seems like a trainer who is going to get his Derby win eventually. He’s been close. But is this likely to be the horse who gets him to the winner’s circle? It doesn’t feel that way to me. In the end, it comes down to my perception that he isn’t as talented as too many other runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby. I don’t think he’s got the brilliance of most of the big guns, and from a pace standpoint, I can’t see him having some kind of tactical edge over the field. Long Range Toddy is an outsider in my book. And it’s unlikely he’ll be on many of my tickets.
To my mind this horse peaked in Rebel and his form cycle is now trending down heading into the the Derby. The Derby will be his fifth start of the year and ninth of his career. Many others are fresher.He’s a toss for me.