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Are we looking at the Kentucky Derby favorite here? Seems likely so. The decision by Mike Smith to ride this guy over Roadster is a big deal in my opinion. And he’s been visually impressive in both recent stakes wins.
That said, even if you forget about the grass tries, there is reason to be skeptical. Two of his three wins came on a sloppy track. And the win in the Rebel over Game Winner could have easily gone the other way. Game Winner lost a lot of ground to Omaha Beach, and it appeared to me that he had his nose in front just before and just after the wire. Plus, Game Winner was making his first start since more than four months that day, while Omaha Beach has been racing pretty consistently since September. Fitness edge: Omaha Beach.
In the Arkansas Derby, Improbable was never going by Omaha Beach. They could have gone around the track again and there is no way Omaha Beach was losing. So since switching to dirt (and hell, even when he was on grass) Omaha Beach has done nothing wrong. But it’s within the realm of possibility that he has benefitted from from a few things that helped his cause in all three of his wins.
What does all this mean? I think it means that Omaha Beach is a major win candidate who just might be receiving credit for slightly more than he’s earned. He’s good. He’s looked good. And there is every reason to believe the best is yet to come. He’ll be a force in the Kentucky Derby. But before you make your decision on Omaha Beach, make sure you are keeping things in their proper perspective. Personally, I can see him on the top of all my wagers. But my mind isn’t made up yet.