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This never works

I’ve seen it happen so many times over the years.  A horse is taken out of his normal, established running style in an attempt to make him more competitive in a given race, and the change in tactics doesn’t work and the horse runs off the board.  Does that mean Bill Mott’s clear attempt to get Hofburg to sit closer to the early pace in The Pennsylvania Derby will fall flat?  Of course not.  Hofburg is a major contender and might go favored, justifiably so.  But let’s note a few things about his PPs below.

For one, we are adding blinkers.  Two, check out his last pair of works.  Both are bullets.  Mott said he wants Hofburg to be closer in the early stages, and all signs indicate that’s definitely the plan.  So the question for bettors is, will Hofburg cooperate, adapt, and improve?  If you think so, he’s arguably your most-likely winner.  But I just feel like I’ve seen this so many times before, and I’m not optimistic.  So I’ll be betting against Hofburg while acknowledging that any improvement at all makes him super dangerous.

 

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