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Was it the workouts?

Sunday’s finale at the Lexington, Kentucky racetrack that I refuse to mention by name was more than just the last race of the day.  It was the last race of the day’s huge BCBC/NHC contest as well.  So there were sure to be major shifts in the leaderboard as contest players tried to gain ground and win a prize.  The winner of the that race was 15-1 on the morning line, looked every bit of a longshot, was bet down to 9-2 for some reason, and rallied late to win.  I was already out of the contest by that point.  But I still bet with non-tourney cash and would never have used this horse if YOU gave me money to bet.  But still, what did I miss with Omen of Change?

I’m not going to post the PPs or Thoro-Graph numbers for every horse in the race.  So trust me when I say the following:

-On Beyers, he was the slowest horse in the race

-On TG, he was the slowest horse in the race

-No mater how you rate class, he was at or near the bottom relative to the rest of the field

-He was one of four with a win over an off track, but his win was the slowest

-His trainer, as you can see, had one win for the year

Yet somehow, he was bet down to 9-2.  So the way I see it is this:  Either someone knew something, or those two bullet works at CD since the last race, which were his first two works since being raced as a Hough trainee for the first time on September 22nd, wowed enough bettors into thinking he was going to wake up in the afternoon and beat a bunch of horses who had all run faster than him.  That’s all I got.   And if you note the workout times and not just the bullets, relative to his prior works they were substantially faster by the stopwatch, not considering track condition, etc.

Another way to look at this is to say that the low odds were a tip-off, and you handicap the tote board, not the PPs.

Thoughts?

3 Comments

  1. Johnny on October 15, 2018 at 2:19 pm

    When I see this type of toteboard activity approaching post time I always wheel this longshot into my exotics. Obviously the bettors know something in many cases that defies normal handicapping logic as we know it.

  2. Bob Mack on October 15, 2018 at 2:40 pm

    While the Beyers might be “slow”, horse has improved every race—equibase trending up as well. Depaz good with young horses. Other two trainers are also solid. Throw out that second race-a couple of standouts on top in that one. Owners paid $250,000 for the horse. I think you let the belterra park lead you astray. Throw in the sizzling works and the way I view these things I would say he had a big shot. Nothing really to fear in the rest of the race. I note a sharp trainer claimed him for $50,000 so there was definitely some buzz.

    • Bob mack on October 16, 2018 at 12:37 am

      He was included in my pic 5. Full transparency—missed on race 6 so I was not alive at that point. Couple more things—trainer record for year was 9-1-3-3 going into the race. Morales has won a few at keeneland this meet and the horse got a weight break as well. I agree 9/2 seems real strange but from a pic 5 standpoint he seems like the type to include as a ticket differentiater. Thanks for listening. Interesting stuff

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