Sunday’s finale at the Lexington, Kentucky racetrack that I refuse to mention by name was more than just the last race of the day. It was the last race of the day’s huge BCBC/NHC contest as well. So there were sure to be major shifts in the leaderboard as contest players tried to gain ground and win a prize. The winner of the that race was 15-1 on the morning line, looked every bit of a longshot, was bet down to 9-2 for some reason, and rallied late to win. I was already out of the contest by that point. But I still bet with non-tourney cash and would never have used this horse if YOU gave me money to bet. But still, what did I miss with Omen of Change?
I’m not going to post the PPs or Thoro-Graph numbers for every horse in the race. So trust me when I say the following:
-On Beyers, he was the slowest horse in the race
-On TG, he was the slowest horse in the race
-No mater how you rate class, he was at or near the bottom relative to the rest of the field
-He was one of four with a win over an off track, but his win was the slowest
-His trainer, as you can see, had one win for the year
Yet somehow, he was bet down to 9-2. So the way I see it is this: Either someone knew something, or those two bullet works at CD since the last race, which were his first two works since being raced as a Hough trainee for the first time on September 22nd, wowed enough bettors into thinking he was going to wake up in the afternoon and beat a bunch of horses who had all run faster than him. That’s all I got. And if you note the workout times and not just the bullets, relative to his prior works they were substantially faster by the stopwatch, not considering track condition, etc.
Another way to look at this is to say that the low odds were a tip-off, and you handicap the tote board, not the PPs.