Derby Spotlight: Omaha Beach
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Are we looking at the Kentucky Derby favorite here? Seems likely so. The decision by Mike Smith to ride this guy over Roadster is a big deal in my opinion. And he’s been visually impressive in both recent stakes wins.
That said, even if you forget about the grass tries, there is reason to be skeptical. Two of his three wins came on a sloppy track. And the win in the Rebel over Game Winner could have easily gone the other way. Game Winner lost a lot of ground to Omaha Beach, and it appeared to me that he had his nose in front just before and just after the wire. Plus, Game Winner was making his first start since more than four months that day, while Omaha Beach has been racing pretty consistently since September. Fitness edge: Omaha Beach.
In the Arkansas Derby, Improbable was never going by Omaha Beach. They could have gone around the track again and there is no way Omaha Beach was losing. So since switching to dirt (and hell, even when he was on grass) Omaha Beach has done nothing wrong. But it’s within the realm of possibility that he has benefitted from from a few things that helped his cause in all three of his wins.
What does all this mean? I think it means that Omaha Beach is a major win candidate who just might be receiving credit for slightly more than he’s earned. He’s good. He’s looked good. And there is every reason to believe the best is yet to come. He’ll be a force in the Kentucky Derby. But before you make your decision on Omaha Beach, make sure you are keeping things in their proper perspective. Personally, I can see him on the top of all my wagers. But my mind isn’t made up yet.
Testing. . .
Always have loved J. Dew’s Derby stuff. I don’t always follow his lead, but his insight is always valuable and much appreciated.
Omaha has been running with a quarter crack. Is this dangerous for the horse, and does it compromise his chances? I understand he’s had it for a while.
If I recall correctly, Big Brown entered the Derby with some quarter crack concerns leading into the big race. OB’s connections seem unconcerned at this time so if you liked him before, it appears there is no reason to jump off of him yet. Worth keeping an eye on, however.
I have been betting on the KD for almost 45 years now. I don’t care which horse is the best, the mere number of factors to be considered in this totally unique race, puts every horse in contention. Although I have not won on a big long shot for some six/seven years now in the KD, I always bet the same way, and that is to bet all the horses going off at 17-1 or higher, to win. Best of luck to all the runners, but I want a long shot to win this year.