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Interesting Angles

Two horses that ran big at Saratoga on Sunday represent some unconventional and possibly totally baseless angles that have won me money in the past.  I was competing in a contest covering both of the races in question.  I used one of the horses, but did not use the other.  Let’s explore.

Race 7 was a N1X for state-breds at 1 1/16 miles on the grass.  During tournament play last year, I noticed (at least in the races that I handicapped and played) that in New York-bred turf races, the horse coming off the longest layoff was winning a lot of the races, often at big prices.  Jody’s Song was the second choice in the wagering in Race 7 at 7-2.  And the Beyer Speed Figure earned in her lone start made her a contender for sure.  But still, she fit a trend that wish I had been following more closely.  Maybe one of you stats experts can look into this and report back as to whether or not the layoff angle is just my imagination.  As for the tournament, because of the low price, I went a different direction and missed.

In the 10th and final race of the day, I needed a price to keep my tournament hopes alive.  I noticed that Time Expired, at 20-1, was NOT resulting in a Pick 6 carryover.  He was the longest price, by far, of the covered horses.  So that in and of itself might be considered grounds for including a horse.  After all, if someone good enough to hit the first five legs likes a horse, maybe that horse is worth a second look.  But the angle I liked here, while I am not at all a blind follower of Beyer Speed Figures, is if you draw a line through Time Expired’s last race, the BSF earned in the previous start would have essentially been the co-highest-last-out-Beyer.  In other words, forgive one bad race and find any previous race fast enough to compete with the others.  What is more, that race two back was at this same level and same distance.  I used Time Expired in my contest, and he ran a fantastic second, ultimately paying more to show than place, oddly.

 

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